Ballot Bulletin: 🇫🇷The Far Right Makes Gains, 🇮🇷Reformist Wins First Round and more🇲🇳🇹🇭🇲🇷

BB#2, For the period of 15/06/24 to 01/07/24

French Parliamentary Election 🇫🇷 Far-Right Leads in First Round of Snap Election

Official Results for the 2024 First Round Legislative Elections in France

National Assembly of France

The Far-right takes dominant role in the first round in a historically divided legislative election. The Nationalist Populist Rassemblement National¹ (RN) increased their vote share from 18.7% → 33.1% winning a commanding plurality compared to it’s two closest rivals Liberal Ensemble² (ENS) who won 21.3% and Socialist Nouveau Front populaire³ (NFP) who won 28.1%. The election concluded on the 30th of June, as the first election to decide who remains on the ballot for the second and final round which will be held on the 7th of July 2024. Each French electoral district has a First Round in which the local candidate must win 50% and 25% above their closest competitor to win and if no candidates reach that threshold they take the top 2 and any candidate who gets above 12.5% move on to the second where the candidate with the most votes win. 76 were directly elected from the first round, RN won 38 seats and NFP 32 seats, ENS 2 seats and other misc parties winning the remaining.

RN led by Marie Le Pen became the dominant political banner for the extremist right in the country absorbing votes from ideologically aligned party Reconquête! (R!) and made an electoral alliance with certain conservative candidates. Overall the far-right gained 22.9% → 33.4% a full 11% increase in support. This support is well distributed as out of the 577 seat National Assembly 444 have a RN candidate. Comparing to the other electoral Coalitions of ENS and NFP who have 321 and 415 qualifying seats.

Further Reading: (Results Dashboard, How will the second round run-off work?, a timeline of the rise of the far right, Le Pen’s far right is on the cusp of power in France, How the 224 candidate withdrawals have reshaped the second round)

Iran Presidential First Round 🇮🇷 Reformist finishes a surprising first

(Un)Official Results for the Iranian Presidential First Round Election (Due to IP Access Issues for Iranian Government Websites I was unable to obtain the official results )

The only reformist Candidate allow to run leads the first round of the Iranian presidential election. Iran’s Presidential elections first round concluded on June 28th showing the Reformist Candidate Masoud Pezeshkian with a strong showing of 44.36% of the vote. The early presidential election was called in response to the death of late president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

Pezeshkian a long time member of the Majles-e Showrā-ye Eslāmī⁴ (Majles) also known as the Iranian parliament. Representing a seat in Iran’s Northwestern province of East Azerbaijan in the Majles since 2008. Pezeshkian representing the voice of reform in the theocratic dictatorship of Iran was the only reform candidate allowed to run in the election was seen as a dark horse. The previous reformist candidate Abdolnaser Hemmati for the 2021 election was barred from running this election.

The runner-up and contender with Pezeshkian for the role is Saeed Jalili a Principlists who represents the conservative political faction of Iran obtained 40.35%. Jalili a veteran member of the Majma'-e Tašxis-e Maslahat-e Nezâm⁵ which acts as an advisory council and inter-governmental arbitrator.

The dark horse candidate of Pezeshkian might come as less of surprise from the relative seat gain in the Majles from the legislative election earlier this year. Although Pezeshkian leads currently as the only reform candidate in a six-man race the other Principlist candidates have endorsed Jalili. Despite this the other story of the election is the historic low turnout.

Graph of Iranian Presidential Election Turnout from the US Institute for Peace

Turnout reaching as low as 39.9% is inline with the legislative election 40.6%. In any democratic state but especially in a limited democracy like Iran where there are strict limitation for those who seek political office voter turnout can send a strong signal to the governing powers of widespread dissatisfaction.

Further Reading: (Voter turnout in Iran’s snap election will be watched as closely as the race itself, Moderate Pezeshkian makes it to Iran presidential run-off, Iran to hold presidential runoff election, Hardliner Jalili and moderate Pezeshkian face voter apathy)

Mongolian Parliamentary election 🇲🇳 Incumbents win close victory

(Un)Official Results for the Mongolian Parliamentary Election (Data access issues at the Mongolian Electoral Commission)

Mongolian ruling party wins a close victory in new constitutional landscape. On June 28th the Mongolian parliamentary elections were won by the Mongol Ardiin Nam⁶ (MAN). MAN led by Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdenewon won 68 out of the 126 seats in the Ulsiin Ikh Khural (Khural) also known as the State Great Khural which acts as Mongolia’s national legislature. Cementing another 4 years for a MAN led government. The elections come as the first result to the polls after the widespread protests in 2021 and 2022 ousted the previous prime minister.

State Great Khural during a session in 2014

This election came as the first test under a new democratic framework which grew out of dissatisfaction and frustration over the political process. Drawing new electoral boundaries, expanding the size of Khural, reversing a recent change in the electoral process. This election was conducted using multiple non-transferable vote for 78 seats divide among 13 regions and 48 national seats by closed list proportional.

Despite winning a clear majority the results are a mixed result for the ruling social democratic MAN. From the previous 2020 election they garnered 44.9% of the popular vote compared to the 2024 result of 35.0% a decline of ~10%. These disappointments continue when looking at the composition of the Khural, in the previous Khural MAN controlled 68 out of 76 seats which roughly at the new size would be 113 seats representing a theoretical loss of 45 seats.

All of these setbacks opened up for the Moderate Liberal party of Ardchilsan Nam⁷ (AN) to make major gains gaining 10% itself in national popular vote and effectively expanding it’s caucus by 24 seats in the legislature. This new era in politics opened up the legislature to smaller and new parties to join the Khural, for the first time since 2012 the Khural has over 2 parties with over 1 seat. Despite these gains for smaller parties and AN and MAN’s setbacks Mr. Oyun-Erdenewon remains the prime minister with a majority in the Khural.

Further Reading: (Mongolians vote amid anger over corruption, Mongolia's ruling party wins slim majority in election, Counting Underway on Mongolia’s Parliamentary Election Marked by Efforts to Woo Disillusioned Voters, Thailand announces new senate, replacing army-appointed lawmakers)

Thai Senate Elections 🇹🇭 Most Complicated Election in the World

Thai senate elections conclude with an unclear final outcome. Thailand’s upper chamber election concluded on 26th of June after a month of multiple selection stages. The 200 member non-partisan body is chosen from individuals who meet requirements like being over 40, over 10 years of working experience being a professional in one of 20 different categories among others. These categories in professions such as industrial entrepreneurs, public health workers or small business owners.

The 20 Categories for qualification

There have been widespread accusations of vote buying and political friendships working against the non-partisan mission for the new senate As the legislative session continues the resulting political make up of the Senate will become clear, but as of know the draconian process leaves the final outcome muddied.

Further Reading: (Thailand’s Senate Elections Results: What now? A guide to Thailand’s next Senate, Thailand’s Strange and Undemocratic Democracy, The Latest on Southeast Asia: Thai Senate Elections)

Mauritanian presidential election 🇲🇷 Ruling party cements power amid

Official Results for the 2024 Mauritanian Presidential 2024

Incumbent President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani wins with well over majority support. The outcome of the 29th of June vote is a clear mandate for President Ghazouani and his party Hizb Al-inṣāf⁸(El Insaf) with which also controls the majority in the national legislature from it’s landslide 2023 victory. The populist conservative movement behind El Insaf has been in control since the first internationally recognized legitimate election of 2014. Despite the country’s struggling economic performance and regional instability Ghazouani saw an increase in vote share from 52% the previous election to 56% in the most recent contest

“We did everything we could to prepare the conditions for a good election and we were relatively successful. I congratulate everyone,” CENI chief Dah Ould Abdel Jelil

Although a decade of peaceful democratic transition is something to be celebrated, there are worries about if the military would intervene if a less palatable candidate won. Although the impartiality is questioned by opposition politicians like Anti-Slavery candidate and member of the national legislature Biram Dah Abeid who casted doubt on the election result. African Union election observation mission congratulated the administration of elections for inclusiveness and effectiveness.

Further Reading: (Mauritania re-elects President Ghazouani for a second term, Who are the candidates in Mauritania's presidential election?, )

P.S. (Late) Happy Canada Day! 🇨🇦

1. National Rally

2. Together

3. New Popular Front

4. Islamic Consultative Assembly

5. Expediency Discernment Council of the System

6. Mongolian People’s Party

7. Mongolian Democratic Party

8. Equity Party